AC Milan - AS Roma predictions and free betting tips [11/04/2024]

On Thursday, 11 April, in the first match of the Europa League quarterfinals, Milan will host Roma on their home turf. The Rossoneri haven't tasted defeat in their last nine matches against their capital-based rivals, however, the Giallorossi have recently picked up great momentum and are ready to vie for the long-awaited trophy.

Milan

After dropping down to the Europa League following a 3rd-place finish in their Champions League group in the autumn (falling behind Borussia Dortmund and PSG, but ahead of Newcastle), Milan has already advanced two rounds in this tournament. In the last 16, the Lombards first had to deal with Rennes, and despite a 3:2 defeat in the second leg, the Rossoneri prevailed (3:0 in the first match). After that, Stefano Pioli's charges confidently defeated Slavia Prague, winning both the first (4:2) and second (1:3) matches. Meanwhile, the hosts are comfortably sitting in 2nd place in the Serie A table, albeit trailing Inter in the Scudetto race by a staggering 14 points. Despite this state of affairs, Milan have won their last five league matches, including a 3:0 thrashing of Lecce over the past weekend - goals were scored by Pulisic, Giroud, and Leao. Rossi
at San Siro, Milan is particularly challenging to beat, having won 11 of their last 15 home matches in Serie A and suffered just two defeats.  For the upcoming clash against Roma, the Rossoneri's squad will be missing injured Caldara, as well as Jimenez and Shimic; veteran defender Tomori will serve suspension for accumulation of yellow cards. The injury list includes central defends Tiau and Kalulu, midfielder Pobega, and backup goalkeeper Mirante. The team's attack will likely feature Rafael Leao, who scored 3 goals in 4 Europa League matches; Englishman Loftus-Cheek (4 goals) will orchestrate the midfield play, while tireless Giroud (12 goals and 8 assists) and American Pulisic (9 goals and 6 assists) will be responsible for creativity up front.   

Roma

Roma, on the other hand, didn't perform too well in the Europa League group stage, finishing second in the quartet, letting Slavia Prague go ahead, but surpassing Servette and Sheriff Tiraspol. However, this didn't prevent the capital club from overcoming Feyenoord on penalties in the last 16 (2:2 on aggregate) and then thrashing Brighton (4:0 victory in the first match, and 1:0 narrow defeat in the second leg). In the national championship, the Wolves are occupying the fifth spot in the league table and are in excellent condition after appointing Daniele De Rossi as the team's head coach in January. The gap from the fourth-placed Bologna is just 3 points, and last weekend, Roma clinched a victory in the Derby della Capitale against Lazio (1:0) - the only goal was scored by Gianluca Mancini in the first half. Wolves

It's worth noting, however, that the Giallorossi have won only two of their previous 14 away matches in the continental championship, and in their last eight of those, they have not managed to win a single playoff fixture. In Roma's squad, injured striker Azmoun is still missing, yet this is the only personnel loss for the Italian team. England's Tammy Abraham finally made his return last weekend to strengthen the attacking line featuring Dybala (12 goals and 8 assists) and Lukaku (10 goals and 3 assists), with the Belgian being the second-highest scorer in the Europa League with 7 goals, trailing only Marseille's Aubameyang. In the midfield, Cristante, Paredes, and Pellegrini will secure their spots, while Mancini and Llorente will solidify the defensive line.

Head-to-head

Out of the last 10 meetings between these teams, Milan have won 6 times with four draws; the Romans haven't prevailed over the Rossoneri since 2019. In the current season, the hosts won both Serie A matches (2:1 and 3:1).

Prediction for the match Milan - Roma

Given that the teams will face each other again in Rome next week, Milan will aim to maximise their home-field advantage to gain the upper hand before travelling to the capital. The hosts are in excellent form, having chalked up seven consecutive victories in all competitions, however, under De Rossi, the Romans have also found fine form, losing only once (and that, in an inconsequential match in Brighton) in their last 11 matches. My prediction - a draw.