Poland - Estonia predictions and free betting tips [21/03/2024]

On Thursday, 21st March, in the Euro 2024 qualification semi-final, the Poland national team will face the national team from Estonia. On the following Tuesday, the winner of this pair will compete against either Wales or Finland in the decisive duel for participation in the continental championship.

Poland

Poland has had a reasonable World Cup in Qatar, being knocked out by the French at the ⅛ final stage (3:1). Since then, the team has noticeably slowed down, unable to secure a direct ticket to the Euros via the qualifying stage - the first two places went to the Czech Republic and Albania. Ex-Portuguese tactician Fernando Santos was replaced by Michal Probierz, with whom the red and whites have yet to lose: for instance, they recently dispatched Latvia (2:0) in a friendly with goals from Przemysław Frankowski and Robert Lewandowski. Poland entered the Euro qualification play-offs thanks to a successful performance in last year's Nations League, and the current 20-match unbeaten run by this national team in home qualification duels for the continental championship is nothing short of impressive.

The Poles, as usual, have a quality line-up. The red and whites' goal is defended by the experienced Szczesny and his backup Bulka, who plays for Nice. The defence is cemented by Premier League representatives Matty Cash (Aston Villa) and Kivior (Arsenal), as well as Frankowski from Lens. The midfield is commanded by Zielinski (Napoli, 86 matches, 10 goals), Zalewski (Roma, 14 matches), and Seba Szymanski (Fenerbahçe). Of course, the main striking force of the team in attack is Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona, 146 matches, 82 goals), who needs no introduction. Juventus striker Arkadiusz Milik, who was injured a few weeks ago and is sidelined until early April, did not make Poland's squad for the Euro 2024 qualification playoffs.

Estonia

Estonia had an unsuccessful qualification campaign, gathering only one point out of 24 possible. It must be said that the group was quite challenging for the Baltic team: Austria, Belgium, and Sweden, as well as Azerbaijan, with whom they could have competed for the penultimate slot. However, a new UEFA rule allows the tricolours to play in the Euro qualification play-offs as the representative who came first in their group in last year's Nations League. Not surprisingly, Estonia is the only team in the play-offs that ended up last in the qualification tournament, and the visitors are heading to Warsaw with an 11-match streak without wins in all competitions since January 2023.

Nine of the previous 11 matches of the Baltic team ended in their defeat - including all three recent encounters with Austria and Sweden (twice); since the triumph in Northern Ireland in 2011, the guests have not won away in Euro qualifiers. Many Estonian players compete in the domestic championship, in particular, striker Zenjov (113 matches, 17 goals) and experienced Vassiljev (156 matches, 26 goals) - the 39-year-old player just needs at least one more appearance in the national team jersey to equal the all-time record holder Martin Reim (157 matches). The coaching team also has Anier (92 matches, 22 goals), Sorga (28 matches, 4 goals), and Sappinen (53 matches, 12 goals). Among those who are employed outside their home country, one can highlight goalkeeper Hein (Arsenal) and midfielder Vetkal (Roma).

Head-to-Head

The last time these teams met each other was in August 2012, with the Estonians achieving victory in the friendly match with a score of 1:0. 

Match prediction: Poland - Estonia

Poland should win effortlessly, given the evident gap in class. The hosts have indeed faltered in the Euro qualifiers, but still possess quality lineup headed by Lewandowski. Moreover, under the management of the new head coach, the red and whites have yet to experience defeat - whereas the Estonians have lost 7 of their 8 previous encounters in all competitions. I expect a victory from the favourite with a -1.5 handicap.