AC Milan - Newcastle United predictions and free betting tips [19/09/2023]
On Tuesday, 19th September, as part of the 1st round of the Champions League group stage, "Milan" is set to host "Newcastle United". Over the weekend, the 'Magpies' ended a three-match losing streak by overpowering 'Brentford', while the 'Rossoneri' were thoroughly beaten by Milan's 'Inter'.
"Milan": Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Kjaer, Hernandez; Pobega, Krunic, Loftus-Cheek; Chukwueze, Giroud, Leao.
"Newcastle": Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Tonali, Guimaraes; Gordon, Isak, Barnes.
The game will be held in Milan at the San Siro Stadium.
Last season's Champions League semi-finalist, 'Milan', is hoping to repeat its feat this season and is dreaming of the eighth title in its history as the holder of the main continental club championship. To achieve this, they will undoubtedly need to accomplish something close to impossible, especially as the 'Rossoneri' find themselves in the toughest group with 'Newcastle', 'PSG' and 'Borussia'. In Serie A, the hosts made a great start, securing 3 victories in the first three rounds: against 'Bologna' (0:2), 'Torino' (4:1), and then 'Roma' before the international break, despite being down to 10 men for the last half hour (1:2). However, last weekend, 'Milan' was absolutely defeated by 'Inter' in the derby: 'Nerazzurri' scored five goals against their arch-enemy for the first time since 1974 (5:1). Nonetheless, Stefano Pioli's men have only lost one of their last 13 home games across all competitions.
Bennacer, who was out of action at the end of last season, will again be absent on Tuesday, as will French international defender Kalulu and Caldara, who were both missing in the derby. Olivier Giroud, France's top scorer (3 goals in Serie A this season), was forced to give up his place in a recent match against Ireland, but started against 'Inter' over the weekend. On the other hand, 'Milan' will be in optimal form, with the Portuguese Leão (15 goals, 8 assists last season) as a key figure. The team's new arrivals from La Liga, Yunus Musah (Valencia), Chukwueze (Villarreal), and US international Pulisic (Chelsea), will also start. The latter scored 2 goals in 3 starting matches. In midfield, Reinders (AZ Alkmaar) is likely to feature with Krunic and Loftus-Cheek.
After a sensational fourth place in the Premier League last season, 'Newcastle' is returning to Europe's premier club tournament. The 'Magpies' have significantly transformed their financial clout over the past 2 years, making them much more competitive. However, maintaining past successes is always the hardest part, and the English club suffered three consecutive league defeats just before the international break: loses to 'Manchester City' (1:0), 'Liverpool' (1:2), who spent over an hour down to 10 men following Van Dijk's red card, and 'Brighton' (3:1). On the other hand, over the weekend, the black-and-whites delighted their fans with a 1:0 victory over 'Brentford', thanks to Callum Wilson's successful penalty conversion in the second half. The visitors' last participation in the Champions League dates back to 2003, when their qualifying campaign ended with defeat to 'Partizan' in a penalty shootout.
On Saturday, former 'Lille' centre-back Sven Botman returned to action. However, Kraft (20 appearances last season), Manquillo and Willock (3 goals, 6 assists in 35 Champions League appearances last season) are still sidelined by injuries. Sandro Tonali's availability is in question, as he is set to face his former club. But confirmed starters include Swedish international Isak (10 goals last season), English forward Callum Wilson (18 goals, 5 assists last season), Barnes (a summer arrival from Leicester) and Paraguayan Almirón (11 goals last season). Eddie Howe also acknowledged that Brazilian forward Joelinton will not be able to take part in the upcoming match due to a knee injury sustained while playing for Brazil.
In the 2002-2003 season, 'Newcastle' visited San Siro to play 'Inter', and despite a brace from Alan Shearer, the teams drew 2:2.
Match prediction for "Milan" vs "Newcastle"
Looking at group F, it's clear: no one can afford to drop points even in the first round, or there's the risk of missing out on the play-offs. At home, 'Milan' is eager to bounce back following the debacle in the Saturday derby, while the 'Magpies' are not in the best of form, having managed to win just once in their last four outings. The teams' chances of success are roughly even, so I'll take a punt on a draw.
Given that 'Milan' has won three of its last four home games in the Champions League, keeping a clean sheet in all of them, I doubt we'll see a lot of goals this time around, as the cost of defeat is too high. I'm betting on a total fewer than 3 goals.
Both teams will focus on set pieces, so I'm betting on a total of over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cards prediction
'Milan' will be raring to go after the debacle in the derby while the 'Magpies' are also averaging 3 yellow cards a match. I confidently bet on a total of over 5.5 cautions.
Exact score prediction
I'm going to place a bet on the exact score being 0:0.